H229: favourite at a big public meeting

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: the favourite at the meetings where the once-a-year public bets: Cheltenham in March, Aintree in April, Royal Ascot, Goodwood and York in high summer, British jumping from Boxing Day to New Year's Day. Their money goes on the name at the head of the market.

The rule

is_favourite = 1 AND ((course = 'CHELTENHAM' AND month = 3) OR (course = 'AINTREE' AND month = 4) OR (course = 'ASCOT' AND month = 6 AND race_type = 'Flat') OR (course = 'GOODWOOD' AND month IN (7, 8)) OR (course = 'YORK' AND month = 8) OR (region = 'GB' AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND (substr(race_date, 6, 5) >= '12-26' OR substr(race_date, 6, 5) <= '01-01')))

Reads: is_favourite, course, month, race_type, region, race_date

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

is_favourite = 1 AND ((course = 'CHELTENHAM' AND month = 3) OR (course = 'AINTREE' AND month = 4) OR (course = 'ASCOT' AND month = 6 AND race_type = 'Flat') OR (course = 'GOODWOOD' AND month IN (7, 8)) OR (course = 'YORK' AND month = 8) OR (region = 'GB' AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND (substr(race_date, 6, 5) >= '12-26' OR substr(race_date, 6, 5) <= '01-01')))

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Cheltenham in March",
    "rule": "(is_favourite = 1 AND ((course = 'CHELTENHAM' AND month = 3) OR (course = 'AINTREE' AND month = 4) OR (course = 'ASCOT' AND month = 6 AND race_type = 'Flat') OR (course = 'GOODWOOD' AND month IN (7, 8)) OR (course = 'YORK' AND month = 8) OR (region = 'GB' AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND (substr(race_date, 6, 5) >= '12-26' OR substr(race_date, 6, 5) <= '01-01')))) AND (course = 'CHELTENHAM')"
  },
  {
    "name": "Royal Ascot",
    "rule": "(is_favourite = 1 AND ((course = 'CHELTENHAM' AND month = 3) OR (course = 'AINTREE' AND month = 4) OR (course = 'ASCOT' AND month = 6 AND race_type = 'Flat') OR (course = 'GOODWOOD' AND month IN (7, 8)) OR (course = 'YORK' AND month = 8) OR (region = 'GB' AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND (substr(race_date, 6, 5) >= '12-26' OR substr(race_date, 6, 5) <= '01-01')))) AND (course = 'ASCOT')"
  },
  {
    "name": "Boxing Day to New Year",
    "rule": "(is_favourite = 1 AND ((course = 'CHELTENHAM' AND month = 3) OR (course = 'AINTREE' AND month = 4) OR (course = 'ASCOT' AND month = 6 AND race_type = 'Flat') OR (course = 'GOODWOOD' AND month IN (7, 8)) OR (course = 'YORK' AND month = 8) OR (region = 'GB' AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND (substr(race_date, 6, 5) >= '12-26' OR substr(race_date, 6, 5) <= '01-01')))) AND ((substr(race_date, 6, 5) >= '12-26' OR substr(race_date, 6, 5) <= '01-01'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(is_favourite = 1 AND ((course = 'CHELTENHAM' AND month = 3) OR (course = 'AINTREE' AND month = 4) OR (course = 'ASCOT' AND month = 6 AND race_type = 'Flat') OR (course = 'GOODWOOD' AND month IN (7, 8)) OR (course = 'YORK' AND month = 8) OR (region = 'GB' AND race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase') AND (substr(race_date, 6, 5) >= '12-26' OR substr(race_date, 6, 5) <= '01-01')))) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info handicap · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,172

A/E

1.04

winners vs the prices

SP return

-5.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+15.0%

197 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 26.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H229-favourite-at-a-big-public-meeting Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [broad] GREEN A/E 1.054 on 2065 bets (broad GREEN)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H229-favourite-at-a-big-public-meeting (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H229-favourite-at-a-big-public-meeting (Boxing Day to New Year): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H229-favourite-at-a-big-public-meeting (Royal Ascot): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H229-favourite-at-a-big-public-meeting (Cheltenham in March): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H229-favourite-at-a-big-public-meeting (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H229-favourite-at-a-big-public-meeting: H229: favourite at a big public meeting (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.