Threads · stamina-control · H231-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-on-quick-ground-at-a-stiff-track
H231: first try at a longer trip on quick ground at a stiff track
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [jumps] RED A/E 1.005 on 2220 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H231: first try at a longer trip on quick ground at a stiff track KILLED red
because Control for H183: the same step up at a stiff or stamina-testing track, but on good or faster ground. If this beats the market too, the track alone is enough.
(track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1) AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.96 on 4,083 bets, by period 1.06 · 0.80 · 1.09. info
Betfair SP return +16.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.80 to 1.09. Zone: all. On
Where it started
Control for H183: the same step up at a stiff or stamina-testing track, but on good or faster ground. If this beats the market too, the track alone is enough.