H231: first try at a longer trip on quick ground at a stiff track

Mechanism and rationale

Control for H183: the same step up at a stiff or stamina-testing track, but on good or faster ground. If this beats the market too, the track alone is enough.

The rule

(track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1) AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3

Reads: track_stamina_test, track_stiff_finish, going_group, distance_yards, last_distance_yards, runs_at_trip, prior_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

(track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1) AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "((track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1) AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "((track_stamina_test = 1 OR track_stiff_finish = 1) AND going_group IN ('good', 'good_to_firm', 'firm') AND distance_yards >= last_distance_yards * 1.15 AND runs_at_trip = 0 AND prior_runs >= 3) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info Flat · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,854

A/E

0.92

winners vs the prices

SP return

-19.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+24.9%

293 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 11.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H231-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-on-quick-ground-at-a-stiff-track Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [jumps] RED A/E 1.005 on 2220 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H231-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-on-quick-ground-at-a-stiff-track (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H231-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-on-quick-ground-at-a-stiff-track (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H231-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-on-quick-ground-at-a-stiff-track (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H231-first-try-at-a-longer-trip-on-quick-ground-at-a-stiff-track: H231: first try at a longer trip on quick ground at a stiff track (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.