Threads · stamina-control · H233-young-horse-in-a-three-mile-handicap-hurdle
H233: young horse in a three mile handicap hurdle
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [first try within a furlong of the trip] RED A/E 1.005 on 2658 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H233: young horse in a three mile handicap hurdle KILLED red
because Aged six or less in a handicap hurdle over three miles or more. Two-sided, because batch 9 pointed both ways: young horses in marathon chases beat the market (1.18) and five-year-olds in long NOVICE hurdles fell short (0.87).
race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age <= 6 AND distance_yards >= 5280
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.97 on 4,900 bets, by period 0.97 · 0.98 · 0.95. info
Betfair SP return -12.0%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H233: young horse in a three mile handicap hurdle
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222,1460.972023 to a year ago1,9940.98Last year760Tested15 Oct, 23:10
first try within a furlong of the trip: A/E 1.00 on 2,658 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.05 · 0.87. info
Betfair SP return -17.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H233: young horse in a three mile handicap hurdle
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,1831.012023 to a year ago1,0681.05Last year407Tested15 Oct, 23:10
soft or heavy: A/E 0.94 on 1,420 bets, by period 0.87 · 0.96 · 1.03. info
Betfair SP return -6.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H233: young horse in a three mile handicap hurdle
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-226290.872023 to a year ago5970.96Last year194Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.98 on 3,517 bets, by period 0.98 · 0.98 · 0.96. info
Betfair SP return -10.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H233: young horse in a three mile handicap hurdle
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-221,4400.982023 to a year ago1,4890.98Last year588Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H233: young horse in a three mile handicap hurdle Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [first try within a furlong of the trip] RED A/E 1.005 on 2658 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Aged six or less in a handicap hurdle over three miles or more. Two-sided, because batch 9 pointed both ways: young horses in marathon chases beat the market (1.18) and five-year-olds in long NOVICE hurdles fell short (0.87).