H233: young horse in a three mile handicap hurdle

Mechanism and rationale

Aged six or less in a handicap hurdle over three miles or more. Two-sided, because batch 9 pointed both ways: young horses in marathon chases beat the market (1.18) and five-year-olds in long NOVICE hurdles fell short (0.87).

The rule

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age <= 6 AND distance_yards >= 5280

Reads: race_type, is_handicap, age, distance_yards

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age <= 6 AND distance_yards >= 5280

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "first try within a furlong of the trip",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age <= 6 AND distance_yards >= 5280) AND (runs_at_trip = 0)"
  },
  {
    "name": "soft or heavy",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age <= 6 AND distance_yards >= 5280) AND (going_group IN ('soft', 'heavy'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND is_handicap = 1 AND age <= 6 AND distance_yards >= 5280) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

3,517

A/E

0.98

winners vs the prices

SP return

-21.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-10.9%

588 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H233-young-horse-in-a-three-mile-handicap-hurdle Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [first try within a furlong of the trip] RED A/E 1.005 on 2658 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H233-young-horse-in-a-three-mile-handicap-hurdle (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H233-young-horse-in-a-three-mile-handicap-hurdle (soft or heavy): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H233-young-horse-in-a-three-mile-handicap-hurdle (first try within a furlong of the trip): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H233-young-horse-in-a-three-mile-handicap-hurdle (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H233-young-horse-in-a-three-mile-handicap-hurdle: H233: young horse in a three mile handicap hurdle (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.