H234: favourite at a big price outside handicaps

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H234: favourite at a big price outside handicaps KILLED red

   because The favourite at 4/1 or bigger in a non-handicap of 12+ runners: the same reasoning as H199 where there is less form to go on (big maidens, novices and bumpers).

   is_handicap = 0 AND is_favourite = 1 AND sp_decimal >= 5 AND field_size >= 12

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.99 on 208 bets, by period 1.27 · 0.94. info

   Betfair SP return -78.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.27. Zone: all. On H234: favourite at a big price outside handicaps

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-22951.27

   2023 to a year ago820.94

   Last year31–

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H234: favourite at a big price outside handicaps Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.989 on 208 bets (broad RED)