Hypotheses · race-betting · H234-favourite-at-a-big-price-outside-handicaps
H234: favourite at a big price outside handicaps
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.989 on 208 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H234: favourite at a big price outside handicaps” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
The favourite at 4/1 or bigger in a non-handicap of 12+ runners: the same reasoning as H199 where there is less form to go on (big maidens, novices and bumpers).
The rule
is_handicap = 0 AND is_favourite = 1 AND sp_decimal >= 5 AND field_size >= 12
Reads: is_handicap, is_favourite, sp_decimal, field_size
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
is_handicap = 0 AND is_favourite = 1 AND sp_decimal >= 5 AND field_size >= 12
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 208
- A/E
- 0.99
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -15.1%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -78.4%
- 31 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 16.3%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H234-favourite-at-a-big-price-outside-handicaps Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.989 on 208 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H234-favourite-at-a-big-price-outside-handicaps (broad): info
· importer
New idea H234-favourite-at-a-big-price-outside-handicaps: H234: favourite at a big price outside handicaps (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.