H235: second favourite at a big price in a huge handicap

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H235: second favourite at a big price in a huge handicap PROMISING amber

   because Second favourite at 7/1 or bigger in a handicap of 16+ runners: if rank carries information the price does not, it should show one place down as well.

   is_handicap = 1 AND sp_rank = 2 AND is_favourite = 0 AND sp_decimal >= 8 AND field_size >= 16

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.19 on 627 bets, by period 0.91 · 1.44 · 1.24. info

   Betfair SP return +11.9%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.44. Zone: all. On H235: second favourite at a big price in a huge handicap

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222740.91

   2023 to a year ago2851.44

   Last year68

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Flat: A/E 1.32 on 356 bets, by period 0.91 · 1.67. info

   Betfair SP return +42.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.67. Zone: all. On H235: second favourite at a big price in a huge handicap

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221580.91

   2023 to a year ago1591.67

   Last year39–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   jumps: A/E 1.00 on 271 bets, by period 0.90 · 1.14. info

   Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.14. Zone: all. On H235: second favourite at a big price in a huge handicap

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221160.90

   2023 to a year ago1261.14

   Last year29–

5. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H235: second favourite at a big price in a huge handicap Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [Flat] AMBER A/E 1.316 on 356 bets (broad AMBER)