H235: second favourite at a big price in a huge handicap

Mechanism and rationale

Second favourite at 7/1 or bigger in a handicap of 16+ runners: if rank carries information the price does not, it should show one place down as well.

The rule

is_handicap = 1 AND sp_rank = 2 AND is_favourite = 0 AND sp_decimal >= 8 AND field_size >= 16

Reads: is_handicap, sp_rank, is_favourite, sp_decimal, field_size

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

is_handicap = 1 AND sp_rank = 2 AND is_favourite = 0 AND sp_decimal >= 8 AND field_size >= 16

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(is_handicap = 1 AND sp_rank = 2 AND is_favourite = 0 AND sp_decimal >= 8 AND field_size >= 16) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(is_handicap = 1 AND sp_rank = 2 AND is_favourite = 0 AND sp_decimal >= 8 AND field_size >= 16) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info jumps · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

271

A/E

1.00

winners vs the prices

SP return

-26.9%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

–

29 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H235-second-favourite-at-a-big-price-in-a-huge-handicap Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [Flat] AMBER A/E 1.316 on 356 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H235-second-favourite-at-a-big-price-in-a-huge-handicap (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H235-second-favourite-at-a-big-price-in-a-huge-handicap (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H235-second-favourite-at-a-big-price-in-a-huge-handicap (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H235-second-favourite-at-a-big-price-in-a-huge-handicap: H235: second favourite at a big price in a huge handicap (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.