H27: flat run into a hurdle

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H27: flat run into a hurdle PROMISING green

   because Established hurdler (3+ hurdle runs) whose last run, within 45 days, was on the Flat: fit, and the form line is disguised.

   race_type = 'Hurdle' AND last_race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND hurdle_runs >= 3

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.07 on 3,339 bets, by period 1.18 · 1.00 · 1.04. info

   Betfair SP return -9.0%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.18. Zone: all. On H27: flat run into a hurdle

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,2061.18

   2023 to a year ago1,5091.00

   Last year6241.04

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap hurdle: A/E 1.08 on 2,822 bets, by period 1.24 · 0.93 · 1.14. info

   Betfair SP return -6.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.24. Zone: all. On H27: flat run into a hurdle

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-229931.24

   2023 to a year ago1,3010.93

   Last year5281.14

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   unplaced on the Flat: A/E 1.05 on 2,663 bets, by period 1.19 · 0.93 · 1.03. info

   Betfair SP return -14.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.19. Zone: all. On H27: flat run into a hurdle

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-229831.19

   2023 to a year ago1,1830.93

   Last year4971.03

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.07 on 2,003 bets, by period 1.15 · 1.00 · 1.09. info

   Betfair SP return +21.6%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.15. Zone: all. On H27: flat run into a hurdle

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-227071.15

   2023 to a year ago9081.00

   Last year3881.09

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   has won over hurdles: A/E 1.03 on 1,881 bets, by period 1.05 · 0.99 · 1.10. info

   Betfair SP return -8.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.10. Zone: all. On H27: flat run into a hurdle

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-225981.05

   2023 to a year ago8950.99

   Last year3881.10

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H27: flat run into a hurdle Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [14/1 or shorter] GREEN A/E 1.07 on 2003 bets (broad AMBER)

8. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   H27-flat-run-into-a-hurdle (H27: flat run into a hurdle) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.07 on 3339 bets (periods 1.18 / 1.00 / 1.04); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom H27-flat-run-into-a-hurdle