H27: flat run into a hurdle

Mechanism and rationale

Established hurdler (3+ hurdle runs) whose last run, within 45 days, was on the Flat: fit, and the form line is disguised.

The rule

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND last_race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND hurdle_runs >= 3

Reads: race_type, last_race_type, days_since_last_run, hurdle_runs

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Hurdle' AND last_race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND hurdle_runs >= 3

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap hurdle",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND last_race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND hurdle_runs >= 3) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "unplaced on the Flat",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND last_race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND hurdle_runs >= 3) AND ((last_position IS NULL OR last_position >= 4))"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND last_race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND hurdle_runs >= 3) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "has won over hurdles",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Hurdle' AND last_race_type = 'Flat' AND days_since_last_run <= 45 AND hurdle_runs >= 3) AND (hurdle_wins >= 1)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info has won over hurdles · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,881

A/E

1.03

winners vs the prices

SP return

-25.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-8.1%

388 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H27-flat-run-into-a-hurdle Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [14/1 or shorter] GREEN A/E 1.07 on 2003 bets (broad AMBER)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H27-flat-run-into-a-hurdle (has won over hurdles): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H27-flat-run-into-a-hurdle (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H27-flat-run-into-a-hurdle (unplaced on the Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H27-flat-run-into-a-hurdle (handicap hurdle): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H27-flat-run-into-a-hurdle (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H27-flat-run-into-a-hurdle: H27: flat run into a hurdle (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.