H31: back on the all weather in winter

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H31: back on the all weather in winter PROMISING amber

   because November-February: a horse with two or more all-weather wins comes back to it after a turf run.

   race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND month IN (11, 12, 1, 2) AND last_surface = 'Turf' AND flat_wins >= 2 AND last_win_type = 'Flat' AND wins_on_going >= 2

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.05 on 952 bets, by period 1.28 · 1.00 · 0.90. info

   Betfair SP return -25.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.90 to 1.28. Zone: all. On H31: back on the all weather in winter

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222161.28

   2023 to a year ago4901.00

   Last year2460.90

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 1.01 on 875 bets, by period 1.33 · 0.95 · 0.82. info

   Betfair SP return -28.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.82 to 1.33. Zone: all. On H31: back on the all weather in winter

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222011.33

   2023 to a year ago4470.95

   Last year2270.82

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   beaten on turf: A/E 1.06 on 921 bets, by period 1.27 · 1.03 · 0.92. info

   Betfair SP return -23.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.27. Zone: all. On H31: back on the all weather in winter

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-222091.27

   2023 to a year ago4731.03

   Last year2390.92

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   course winner: A/E 1.11 on 675 bets, by period 1.35 · 0.99 · 1.15. info

   Betfair SP return +2.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.35. Zone: all. On H31: back on the all weather in winter

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221471.35

   2023 to a year ago3490.99

   Last year1791.15

6. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   H31: back on the all weather in winter Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [course winner] AMBER A/E 1.11 on 675 bets (broad RED)