H31: back on the all weather in winter

Mechanism and rationale

November-February: a horse with two or more all-weather wins comes back to it after a turf run.

The rule

race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND month IN (11, 12, 1, 2) AND last_surface = 'Turf' AND flat_wins >= 2 AND last_win_type = 'Flat' AND wins_on_going >= 2

Reads: race_type, surface, month, last_surface, flat_wins, last_win_type, wins_on_going

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND month IN (11, 12, 1, 2) AND last_surface = 'Turf' AND flat_wins >= 2 AND last_win_type = 'Flat' AND wins_on_going >= 2

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND month IN (11, 12, 1, 2) AND last_surface = 'Turf' AND flat_wins >= 2 AND last_win_type = 'Flat' AND wins_on_going >= 2) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "beaten on turf",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND month IN (11, 12, 1, 2) AND last_surface = 'Turf' AND flat_wins >= 2 AND last_win_type = 'Flat' AND wins_on_going >= 2) AND ((last_position IS NULL OR last_position > 1))"
  },
  {
    "name": "course winner",
    "rule": "(race_type = 'Flat' AND surface = 'AW' AND month IN (11, 12, 1, 2) AND last_surface = 'Turf' AND flat_wins >= 2 AND last_win_type = 'Flat' AND wins_on_going >= 2) AND (prior_course_wins >= 1)"
  }
]

Tier

B

Result (from the archive)

info course winner · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

675

A/E

1.11

winners vs the prices

SP return

-16.0%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+2.6%

179 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.2%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H31-back-on-the-all-weather-in-winter Discovery → PROMISING import: tier B: interesting, unproven; best [course winner] AMBER A/E 1.11 on 675 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H31-back-on-the-all-weather-in-winter (course winner): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H31-back-on-the-all-weather-in-winter (beaten on turf): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H31-back-on-the-all-weather-in-winter (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H31-back-on-the-all-weather-in-winter (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. New idea H31-back-on-the-all-weather-in-winter: H31: back on the all weather in winter (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.