H33: quick turnout after a hard fought win

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H33: quick turnout after a hard fought win KILLED red

   because NEGATIVE: won a battle last time and runs again within 10 days. The hard race is still in its legs.

   last_position = 1 AND last_fought_out_finish = 1 AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND days_since_last_run <= 10

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.95 on 355 bets, by period 1.03 · 0.88. info

   Betfair SP return +10.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.88 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H33: quick turnout after a hard fought win

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1691.03

   Later half1860.88

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap (under a penalty): A/E 0.98 on 320 bets, by period 1.08 · 0.89. info

   Betfair SP return -11.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.08. Zone: all. On H33: quick turnout after a hard fought win

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1561.08

   Later half1640.89

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   favourite: A/E 0.97 on 133 bets, by period 1.01 · 0.94. info

   Betfair SP return -4.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.01. Zone: all. On H33: quick turnout after a hard fought win

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half621.01

   Later half710.94

5. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H33: quick turnout after a hard fought win Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [handicap (under a penalty)] RED A/E 0.985 on 320 bets (broad RED)