H33: quick turnout after a hard fought win

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: won a battle last time and runs again within 10 days. The hard race is still in its legs.

The rule

last_position = 1 AND last_fought_out_finish = 1 AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND days_since_last_run <= 10

Reads: last_position, last_fought_out_finish, last_under_pressure, days_since_last_run

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

last_position = 1 AND last_fought_out_finish = 1 AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND days_since_last_run <= 10

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "handicap (under a penalty)",
    "rule": "(last_position = 1 AND last_fought_out_finish = 1 AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND days_since_last_run <= 10) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "favourite",
    "rule": "(last_position = 1 AND last_fought_out_finish = 1 AND last_under_pressure = 1 AND days_since_last_run <= 10) AND (is_favourite = 1)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info favourite · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

133

A/E

0.97

winners vs the prices

SP return

-11.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-4.8%

133 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 33.8%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H33-quick-turnout-after-a-hard-fought-win Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [handicap (under a penalty)] RED A/E 0.985 on 320 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H33-quick-turnout-after-a-hard-fought-win (favourite): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H33-quick-turnout-after-a-hard-fought-win (handicap (under a penalty)): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H33-quick-turnout-after-a-hard-fought-win (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H33-quick-turnout-after-a-hard-fought-win: H33: quick turnout after a hard fought win (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.