Threads · equipment · H42-first-time-headgear

H42: first time headgear

Hypotheses: 1 (0 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Discovery
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [weakened last time] AMBER A/E 1.099 on 4555 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H42: first time headgear KILLED amber
because Headgear on for the first time: the yard is trying something to find the improvement.
```
first_headgear = 1
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.03 on 7,618 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.06. info
Betfair SP return -0.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H42: first time headgear
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half3,3520.99
Later half4,2661.06
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
weakened last time: A/E 1.10 on 4,555 bets, by period 1.06 · 1.13. info
Betfair SP return +2.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.07). Zone: all. On H42: first time headgear
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half2,0621.06
Later half2,4931.13
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 1.05 on 5,648 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.11. info
Betfair SP return +5.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.11. Zone: all. On H42: first time headgear
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half2,5290.97
Later half3,1191.11
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 1.04 on 2,796 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.10. info
Betfair SP return +0.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.09). Zone: all. On H42: first time headgear
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half1,7591.01
Later half1,0371.10
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 1.03 on 4,712 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.06. info
Betfair SP return -0.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H42: first time headgear
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half1,5390.96
Later half3,1731.06
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H42: first time headgear Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [weakened last time] AMBER A/E 1.099 on 4555 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

Headgear on for the first time: the yard is trying something to find the improvement.

H42: first time headgear

Hypotheses

1 (0 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Discovery

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [weakened last time] AMBER A/E 1.099 on 4555 bets (broad RED)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H42: first time headgear KILLED amber
because Headgear on for the first time: the yard is trying something to find the improvement.
```
first_headgear = 1
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.03 on 7,618 bets, by period 0.99 · 1.06. info
Betfair SP return -0.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H42: first time headgear
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half3,3520.99
Later half4,2661.06
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
weakened last time: A/E 1.10 on 4,555 bets, by period 1.06 · 1.13. info
Betfair SP return +2.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.07). Zone: all. On H42: first time headgear
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half2,0621.06
Later half2,4931.13
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 1.05 on 5,648 bets, by period 0.97 · 1.11. info
Betfair SP return +5.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.11. Zone: all. On H42: first time headgear
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half2,5290.97
Later half3,1191.11
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 1.04 on 2,796 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.10. info
Betfair SP return +0.6%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.09). Zone: all. On H42: first time headgear
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half1,7591.01
Later half1,0371.10
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 1.03 on 4,712 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.06. info
Betfair SP return -0.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.06. Zone: all. On H42: first time headgear
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half1,5390.96
Later half3,1731.06
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H42: first time headgear Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [weakened last time] AMBER A/E 1.099 on 4555 bets (broad RED)

Where it started

Headgear on for the first time: the yard is trying something to find the improvement.