H42: first time headgear

Mechanism and rationale

Headgear on for the first time: the yard is trying something to find the improvement.

The rule

first_headgear = 1

Reads: first_headgear

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

first_headgear = 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "weakened last time",
    "rule": "(first_headgear = 1) AND (last_weak_finish = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(first_headgear = 1) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(first_headgear = 1) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(first_headgear = 1) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info Flat · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

4,712

A/E

1.03

winners vs the prices

SP return

-22.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-0.2%

4,682 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 9.1%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H42-first-time-headgear Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [weakened last time] AMBER A/E 1.099 on 4555 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H42-first-time-headgear (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H42-first-time-headgear (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H42-first-time-headgear (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H42-first-time-headgear (weakened last time): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H42-first-time-headgear (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H42-first-time-headgear: H42: first time headgear (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.