H53: failed to finish after a win

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H53: failed to finish after a win KILLED red

   because Won two runs ago, failed to finish last time: one bad day is being read as the horse's level.

   last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 2 AND position_2_back = 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.01 on 3,115 bets, by period 1.01 · 1.03 · 0.94. info

   Betfair SP return -18.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.94 to 1.03. Zone: all. On H53: failed to finish after a win

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-221,1241.01

   2023 to a year ago1,4441.03

   Last year5470.94

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H53: failed to finish after a win Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.009 on 3115 bets (broad RED)