Hypotheses · excuse · H53-failed-to-finish-after-a-win
H53: failed to finish after a win
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.009 on 3115 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H53: failed to finish after a win” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
Won two runs ago, failed to finish last time: one bad day is being read as the horse's level.
The rule
last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 2 AND position_2_back = 1
Reads: last_position, prior_runs, position_2_back
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
last_position IS NULL AND prior_runs >= 2 AND position_2_back = 1
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 3,115
- A/E
- 1.01
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -25.7%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -18.8%
- 545 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 12.2%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H53-failed-to-finish-after-a-win Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.009 on 3115 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H53-failed-to-finish-after-a-win (broad): info
· importer
New idea H53-failed-to-finish-after-a-win: H53: failed to finish after a win (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.