Threads · course · H61-course-likes-fresh
H61: course likes fresh
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.019 on 3996 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H61: course likes fresh KILLED red
because First run for 150+ days at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Some tracks are kind to a horse short of a run: sharp, quick, easy finish.
cp_fresh_runs >= 60 AND cp_fresh_wins >= 1.25 * cp_fresh_exp
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.02 on 3,996 bets, by period 1.07 · 0.95 · 0.81. info
Betfair SP return -66.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.81 to 1.07. Zone: all. On H61: course likes fresh
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-222,4831.072023 to a year ago1,3980.95Last year1150.81Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H61: course likes fresh Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.019 on 3996 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
First run for 150+ days at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Some tracks are kind to a horse short of a run: sharp, quick, easy finish.