Hypotheses · course · H61-course-likes-fresh
H61: course likes fresh
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.019 on 3996 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H61: course likes fresh” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
First run for 150+ days at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Some tracks are kind to a horse short of a run: sharp, quick, easy finish.
The rule
cp_fresh_runs >= 60 AND cp_fresh_wins >= 1.25 * cp_fresh_exp
Reads: cp_fresh_runs, cp_fresh_wins, cp_fresh_exp
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
cp_fresh_runs >= 60 AND cp_fresh_wins >= 1.25 * cp_fresh_exp
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 3,996
- A/E
- 1.02
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -28.1%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -66.7%
- 115 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 9.2%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H61-course-likes-fresh Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.019 on 3996 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H61-course-likes-fresh (broad): info
· importer
New idea H61-course-likes-fresh: H61: course likes fresh (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.