Threads · course · H66-course-likes-bottom-weight
H66: course likes bottom weight
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.011 on 5769 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H66: course likes bottom weight KILLED red
because Bottom weight in a handicap at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Stiff or testing tracks where weight tells.
cp_bottom_weight_runs >= 60 AND cp_bottom_weight_wins >= 1.25 * cp_bottom_weight_exp
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.01 on 5,769 bets, by period 1.02 · 0.99 · 1.08. info
Betfair SP return -14.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.99 to 1.08. Zone: all. On H66: course likes bottom weight
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-223,2301.022023 to a year ago2,1560.99Last year3831.08Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H66: course likes bottom weight Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.011 on 5769 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
Bottom weight in a handicap at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Stiff or testing tracks where weight tells.