H66: course likes bottom weight

Mechanism and rationale

Bottom weight in a handicap at a course where such runners have beaten the market by 25%+ before. Stiff or testing tracks where weight tells.

The rule

cp_bottom_weight_runs >= 60 AND cp_bottom_weight_wins >= 1.25 * cp_bottom_weight_exp

Reads: cp_bottom_weight_runs, cp_bottom_weight_wins, cp_bottom_weight_exp

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

cp_bottom_weight_runs >= 60 AND cp_bottom_weight_wins >= 1.25 * cp_bottom_weight_exp

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

5,769

A/E

1.01

winners vs the prices

SP return

-26.6%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-14.0%

383 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.5%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H66-course-likes-bottom-weight Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 1.011 on 5769 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H66-course-likes-bottom-weight (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H66-course-likes-bottom-weight: H66: course likes bottom weight (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.