H78: trainer beats the market at this course

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H78: trainer beats the market at this course KILLED red

   because The trainer's earlier runners at this course beat the market by 30%+ (25+ runners): a yard that targets the track.

   tc_runs >= 25 AND tc_wins >= 1.3 * tc_exp

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.00 on 72,116 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.00 · 1.00. info

   Betfair SP return -9.3%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H78: trainer beats the market at this course

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-2223,2221.00

   2023 to a year ago35,7111.00

   Last year13,1831.00

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H78: trainer beats the market at this course Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.999 on 72116 bets (broad RED)