Hypotheses · course · H78-trainer-beats-the-market-at-this-course
H78: trainer beats the market at this course
tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.999 on 72116 bets (broad RED)
Starts the thread “H78: trainer beats the market at this course” 1 hypothesis
- Proposed
- Designed
- Discovery
- Promising
- Falsification
- Frozen
- Vault
- Provisional
- Shadow
- Validated
- Live
- Source
- Imported from the overnight batches
- Made by
- import
- Created
- 15 Oct, 23:10
- Tests logged
- 1
Mechanism and rationale
The trainer's earlier runners at this course beat the market by 30%+ (25+ runners): a yard that targets the track.
The rule
tc_runs >= 25 AND tc_wins >= 1.3 * tc_exp
Reads: tc_runs, tc_wins, tc_exp
Pre-registration
- Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)
- not designed yet
- Frozen
- not frozen
- The definition can still change.
- Broad
tc_runs >= 25 AND tc_wins >= 1.3 * tc_exp
- Kind
all
- Origin
research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl
- Refinements
none
- Tier
C
Result (from the archive)
info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10
- Bets
- 72,116
- A/E
- 1.00
- winners vs the prices
- SP return
- -25.3%
- level stakes
- Betfair SP return
- -9.3%
- 13,141 bets with a BSP
Strike rate 11.3%.
By period
Falsification
No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.
Sealed holdout (vault)
Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.
Forward record
No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.
Lineage
No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.
Agent runs
No agent has worked on this yet.
Timeline
H78-trainer-beats-the-market-at-this-course Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.999 on 72116 bets (broad RED)
· importer
import result for H78-trainer-beats-the-market-at-this-course (broad): info
· importer
New idea H78-trainer-beats-the-market-at-this-course: H78: trainer beats the market at this course (import)
· importer
Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.