Threads · trajectory · H83-caught-in-the-last-furlong

H83: caught in the last furlong

Hypotheses: 1 (1 alive)
Depth: 0
Best rung: Promising
Open questions: 0
Last activity: 15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.908 on 515 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H83: caught in the last furlong PROMISING negative
because Was in front and got caught in the last furlong or on the run-in: did everything but win.
```
lt_caught_late = 1 AND last_position > 1
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.93 on 2,838 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.91. info
Betfair SP return -17.5%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H83: caught in the last furlong
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half1,1480.95
Later half1,6900.91
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
beaten a length or less: A/E 1.00 on 1,178 bets, by period 1.08 · 0.93. info
Betfair SP return -10.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.08. Zone: all. On H83: caught in the last furlong
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half4981.08
Later half6800.93
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 0.93 on 2,288 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.89. info
Betfair SP return -17.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H83: caught in the last furlong
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half7961.00
Later half1,4920.89
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 0.91 on 515 bets, by period 0.87 · 0.98. info
Betfair SP return -17.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H83: caught in the last furlong
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half3260.87
Later half1890.98
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
down in trip or same: A/E 0.93 on 1,750 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.92. info
Betfair SP return -20.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H83: caught in the last furlong
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half7010.95
Later half1,0490.92
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H83: caught in the last furlong Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.908 on 515 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

Where it started

Was in front and got caught in the last furlong or on the run-in: did everything but win.

H83: caught in the last furlong

Hypotheses

1 (1 alive)

Depth

Best rung

Promising

Open questions

Last activity

15 Oct, 23:10

Where it stands: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.908 on 515 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

The notebook

Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H83: caught in the last furlong PROMISING negative
because Was in front and got caught in the last furlong or on the run-in: did everything but win.
```
lt_caught_late = 1 AND last_position > 1
```
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.93 on 2,838 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.91. info
Betfair SP return -17.5%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H83: caught in the last furlong
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half1,1480.95
Later half1,6900.91
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
beaten a length or less: A/E 1.00 on 1,178 bets, by period 1.08 · 0.93. info
Betfair SP return -10.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.08. Zone: all. On H83: caught in the last furlong
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half4981.08
Later half6800.93
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
Flat: A/E 0.93 on 2,288 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.89. info
Betfair SP return -17.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H83: caught in the last furlong
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half7961.00
Later half1,4920.89
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
jumps: A/E 0.91 on 515 bets, by period 0.87 · 0.98. info
Betfair SP return -17.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H83: caught in the last furlong
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half3260.87
Later half1890.98
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
down in trip or same: A/E 0.93 on 1,750 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.92. info
Betfair SP return -20.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On H83: caught in the last furlong
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3
Earlier half7010.95
Later half1,0490.92
Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets.
Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
H83: caught in the last furlong Discovery → PROMISINGimport: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.908 on 515 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

Where it started

Was in front and got caught in the last furlong or on the run-in: did everything but win.