H83: caught in the last furlong

Mechanism and rationale

Was in front and got caught in the last furlong or on the run-in: did everything but win.

The rule

lt_caught_late = 1 AND last_position > 1

Reads: lt_caught_late, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

lt_caught_late = 1 AND last_position > 1

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "beaten a length or less",
    "rule": "(lt_caught_late = 1 AND last_position > 1) AND (last_beaten_lengths <= 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "Flat",
    "rule": "(lt_caught_late = 1 AND last_position > 1) AND (race_type = 'Flat')"
  },
  {
    "name": "jumps",
    "rule": "(lt_caught_late = 1 AND last_position > 1) AND (race_type IN ('Hurdle', 'Chase'))"
  },
  {
    "name": "down in trip or same",
    "rule": "(lt_caught_late = 1 AND last_position > 1) AND (distance_yards <= last_distance_yards)"
  }
]

Tier

N

Result (from the archive)

info down in trip or same · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,750

A/E

0.93

winners vs the prices

SP return

-32.3%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-20.7%

1,741 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H83-caught-in-the-last-furlong Discovery → PROMISING import: tier N: a negative; best [jumps] NEGATIVE A/E 0.908 on 515 bets (broad NEGATIVE)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H83-caught-in-the-last-furlong (down in trip or same): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H83-caught-in-the-last-furlong (jumps): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H83-caught-in-the-last-furlong (Flat): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for H83-caught-in-the-last-furlong (beaten a length or less): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for H83-caught-in-the-last-furlong (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea H83-caught-in-the-last-furlong: H83: caught in the last furlong (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.