H88: gained ground through the race

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   H88: gained ground through the race KILLED red

   because Finished at least four places better than it sat in mid-race without winning: going forward at the finish.

   lt_mid_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1 AND last_position <= lt_mid_position - 4

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.97 on 1,263 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.95. info

   Betfair SP return -1.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.00. Zone: all. On H88: gained ground through the race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half5121.00

   Later half7510.95

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   up in trip: A/E 1.00 on 422 bets, by period 0.88 · 1.08. info

   Betfair SP return -6.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.88 to 1.08. Zone: all. On H88: gained ground through the race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1910.88

   Later half2311.08

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   not a flattered closer: A/E 1.01 on 1,189 bets, by period 1.05 · 0.98. info

   Betfair SP return +2.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H88: gained ground through the race

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4821.05

   Later half7070.98

5. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   H88: gained ground through the race Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [not a flattered closer] RED A/E 1.008 on 1189 bets (broad RED)