H88: gained ground through the race

Mechanism and rationale

Finished at least four places better than it sat in mid-race without winning: going forward at the finish.

The rule

lt_mid_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1 AND last_position <= lt_mid_position - 4

Reads: lt_mid_position, last_position

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

lt_mid_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1 AND last_position <= lt_mid_position - 4

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "up in trip",
    "rule": "(lt_mid_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1 AND last_position <= lt_mid_position - 4) AND (distance_yards >= last_distance_yards + 220)"
  },
  {
    "name": "not a flattered closer",
    "rule": "(lt_mid_position IS NOT NULL AND last_position > 1 AND last_position <= lt_mid_position - 4) AND (coalesce(last_race_tilt, 0) < 0.2)"
  }
]

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info not a flattered closer · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,189

A/E

1.01

winners vs the prices

SP return

-19.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+2.1%

1,188 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 12.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H88-gained-ground-through-the-race Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [not a flattered closer] RED A/E 1.008 on 1189 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H88-gained-ground-through-the-race (not a flattered closer): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for H88-gained-ground-through-the-race (up in trip): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for H88-gained-ground-through-the-race (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. New idea H88-gained-ground-through-the-race: H88: gained ground through the race (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.