Threads · jockey · H96-first-booking-of-a-top-jockey
H96: first booking of a top jockey
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.981 on 1705 bets (broad RED)
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
H96: first booking of a top jockey KILLED red
because A jockey winning 18%+ rides for the yard for the first time (yard with 50+ runners): booked for a reason.
pairing_runs = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 50 AND jockey_runs >= 100 AND jockey_wins * 100 >= jockey_runs * 18
made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.98 on 1,705 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.99 · 1.05. info
Betfair SP return +12.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.05. Zone: all. On H96: first booking of a top jockey
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.32020-227760.952023 to a year ago7230.99Last year2061.05Killed15 Oct, 23:10
H96: first booking of a top jockey Discovery → KILLEDimport: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.981 on 1705 bets (broad RED)
Where it started
A jockey winning 18%+ rides for the yard for the first time (yard with 50+ runners): booked for a reason.