H96: first booking of a top jockey

Mechanism and rationale

A jockey winning 18%+ rides for the yard for the first time (yard with 50+ runners): booked for a reason.

The rule

pairing_runs = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 50 AND jockey_runs >= 100 AND jockey_wins * 100 >= jockey_runs * 18

Reads: pairing_runs, trainer_runs, jockey_runs, jockey_wins

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

pairing_runs = 0 AND trainer_runs >= 50 AND jockey_runs >= 100 AND jockey_wins * 100 >= jockey_runs * 18

Kind

all

Origin

research/experiments/overnight/results_v2.jsonl

Refinements

none

Tier

C

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,705

A/E

0.98

winners vs the prices

SP return

-16.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+12.4%

206 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 14.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. H96-first-booking-of-a-top-jockey Discovery → KILLED import: tier C: rejected, do not test again unless new data changes the idea; best [broad] RED A/E 0.981 on 1705 bets (broad RED)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for H96-first-booking-of-a-top-jockey (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea H96-first-booking-of-a-top-jockey: H96: first booking of a top jockey (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.