HS3: harry on dan usually held up

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   HS3: harry on dan usually held up KILLED amber

   because Harry on Dan, usual early position in the bottom third (RaceiQ). Predicted level.

   jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_early_pct_avg3 IS NOT NULL AND s_early_pct_avg3 <= 0.33

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.06 on 398 bets, by period 0.95 · 1.21. info

   Betfair SP return +6.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.95 to 1.21. Zone: all. On HS3: harry on dan usually held up

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago2490.95

   Last year1491.21

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   HS3: harry on dan usually held up Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.058 on 398 bets