Hypotheses · harry-dan · HS3-harry-on-dan-usually-held-up

HS3: harry on dan usually held up

KILLEDamberFailed a test or its forward record. Kept: failures are knowledge.

best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.058 on 398 bets

Starts the thread “HS3: harry on dan usually held up” 1 hypothesis

Proposed
Designed
Discovery
Promising
Falsification
Frozen
Vault
Provisional
Shadow
Validated
Live

Source: Imported from the RaceiQ study
Made by: import
Created: 15 Oct, 23:10
Tests logged: 1

Mechanism and rationale

Harry on Dan, usual early position in the bottom third (RaceiQ). Predicted level.

The rule

jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_early_pct_avg3 IS NOT NULL AND s_early_pct_avg3 <= 0.33

Reads: jockey, trainer, race_type, s_early_pct_avg3

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec): not designed yet
Frozen: not frozen; The definition can still change.

Broad: jockey = 'Harry Skelton' AND trainer = 'Dan Skelton' AND race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND s_early_pct_avg3 IS NOT NULL AND s_early_pct_avg3 <= 0.33
Kind: history
Origin: research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl
Refinements: none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets: 398
A/E: 1.06; winners vs the prices
SP return: -14.8%; level stakes
Betfair SP return: +6.4%; 148 bets with a BSP

0.80dashed line 1.00 · no interval recorded1.20

Strike rate 22.6%.

By period

betsA/E0.71.01.3

2020-220–

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

HS3-harry-on-dan-usually-held-up Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] AMBER A/E 1.058 on 398 bets
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
import result for HS3-harry-on-dan-usually-held-up (broad): info
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer
New idea HS3-harry-on-dan-usually-held-up: HS3: harry on dan usually held up (import)
15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.