IQ01: lost ground jumping but finished close

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ01: lost ground jumping but finished close KILLED red

   because Last run: among the quarter of the field that lost most ground at the obstacles, yet beaten five lengths or less. The result understates it; the lengths went at the jumps, not in ability.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.00 on 264 bets, by period 0.75 · 1.25. info

   Betfair SP return -27.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.75 to 1.25. Zone: all. On IQ01: lost ground jumping but finished close

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1370.75

   Later half1271.25

3. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ01: lost ground jumping but finished close Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [broad] RED A/E 0.997 on 264 bets