IQ01: lost ground jumping but finished close

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: among the quarter of the field that lost most ground at the obstacles, yet beaten five lengths or less. The result understates it; the lengths went at the jumps, not in ability.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5

Reads: race_type, l_lgj_pct, last_position, last_beaten_lengths

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25 AND last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info broad · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

264

A/E

1.00

winners vs the prices

SP return

-33.4%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-27.7%

264 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 16.7%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ01-lost-ground-jumping-but-finished-close Discovery → KILLED import: best [broad] RED A/E 0.997 on 264 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ01-lost-ground-jumping-but-finished-close (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. New idea IQ01-lost-ground-jumping-but-finished-close: IQ01: lost ground jumping but finished close (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.