IQ02: jumped well in an ugly result

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ02: jumped well in an ugly result PROMISING green

   because Last run: among the quarter that gained most ground at the obstacles, but beaten ten lengths or more. The jumping is intact and the market sees only the distance beaten.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 10

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.03 on 2,270 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.07. info

   Betfair SP return 0.0%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.07. Zone: all. On IQ02: jumped well in an ugly result

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1,1051.00

   Later half1,1651.07

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase today: A/E 0.95 on 733 bets, by period 0.87 · 1.04. info

   Betfair SP return +13.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.04. Zone: all. On IQ02: jumped well in an ugly result

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3620.87

   Later half3711.04

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   last run in today's code: A/E 1.05 on 2,097 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.09. info

   Betfair SP return +0.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.07). Zone: all. On IQ02: jumped well in an ugly result

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1,0481.02

   Later half1,0491.09

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 1.09 on 1,594 bets, by period 1.04 · 1.14. info

   Betfair SP return +8.8%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.10). Zone: all. On IQ02: jumped well in an ugly result

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half7391.04

   Later half8551.14

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.03 on 1,656 bets, by period 1.00 · 1.05. info

   Betfair SP return +7.6%. Unstable: periods range 1.00 to 1.05. Zone: all. On IQ02: jumped well in an ugly result

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half7911.00

   Later half8651.05

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ02: jumped well in an ugly result Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [handicap] GREEN A/E 1.091 on 1594 bets

8. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

   IQ02-jumped-well-in-an-ugly-result (IQ02: jumped well in an ugly result) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.03 on 2270 bets (periods 1.00 / 1.07); now PROMISING.

   result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ02-jumped-well-in-an-ugly-result