IQ02: jumped well in an ugly result

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: among the quarter that gained most ground at the obstacles, but beaten ten lengths or more. The jumping is intact and the market sees only the distance beaten.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 10

Reads: race_type, l_lgj_pct, last_beaten_lengths

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 10

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 10) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 10) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 10) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND last_beaten_lengths >= 10) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

1,656

A/E

1.03

winners vs the prices

SP return

-11.8%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+7.6%

1,654 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 15.3%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ02-jumped-well-in-an-ugly-result Discovery → PROMISING import: best [handicap] GREEN A/E 1.091 on 1594 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ02-jumped-well-in-an-ugly-result (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ02-jumped-well-in-an-ugly-result (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ02-jumped-well-in-an-ugly-result (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ02-jumped-well-in-an-ugly-result (chase today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ02-jumped-well-in-an-ugly-result (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea IQ02-jumped-well-in-an-ugly-result: IQ02: jumped well in an ugly result (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.