IQ03: lost speed at the jumps but recovered fast

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ03: lost speed at the jumps but recovered fast PROMISING negative

   because Last run: among the quarter that lost most speed at the obstacles, and among the quarter quickest to get it back. An athlete: the recovery matters more than the loss.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_speed_lost_pct <= 0.25 AND l_recovery_time_pct <= 0.25

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.89 on 768 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.80. info

   Betfair SP return -15.6%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ03: lost speed at the jumps but recovered fast

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4360.95

   Later half3320.80

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase today: A/E 0.93 on 273 bets, by period 0.99 · 0.84. info

   Betfair SP return -2.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ03: lost speed at the jumps but recovered fast

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1550.99

   Later half1180.84

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   last run in today's code: A/E 0.90 on 710 bets, by period 0.97 · 0.78. info

   Betfair SP return -15.3%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ03: lost speed at the jumps but recovered fast

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4130.97

   Later half2970.78

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 0.83 on 538 bets, by period 0.87 · 0.77. info

   Betfair SP return -24.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ03: lost speed at the jumps but recovered fast

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2950.87

   Later half2430.77

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.88 on 638 bets, by period 0.95 · 0.77. info

   Betfair SP return -21.7%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ03: lost speed at the jumps but recovered fast

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half3700.95

   Later half2680.77

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ03: lost speed at the jumps but recovered fast Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [handicap] NEGATIVE A/E 0.827 on 538 bets