IQ03: lost speed at the jumps but recovered fast

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: among the quarter that lost most speed at the obstacles, and among the quarter quickest to get it back. An athlete: the recovery matters more than the loss.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_speed_lost_pct <= 0.25 AND l_recovery_time_pct <= 0.25

Reads: race_type, l_speed_lost_pct, l_recovery_time_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_speed_lost_pct <= 0.25 AND l_recovery_time_pct <= 0.25

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_speed_lost_pct <= 0.25 AND l_recovery_time_pct <= 0.25) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_speed_lost_pct <= 0.25 AND l_recovery_time_pct <= 0.25) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_speed_lost_pct <= 0.25 AND l_recovery_time_pct <= 0.25) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_speed_lost_pct <= 0.25 AND l_recovery_time_pct <= 0.25) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

638

A/E

0.88

winners vs the prices

SP return

-31.7%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-21.7%

637 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 17.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ03-lost-speed-at-the-jumps-but-recovered-fast Discovery → PROMISING import: best [handicap] NEGATIVE A/E 0.827 on 538 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ03-lost-speed-at-the-jumps-but-recovered-fast (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ03-lost-speed-at-the-jumps-but-recovered-fast (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ03-lost-speed-at-the-jumps-but-recovered-fast (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ03-lost-speed-at-the-jumps-but-recovered-fast (chase today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ03-lost-speed-at-the-jumps-but-recovered-fast (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea IQ03-lost-speed-at-the-jumps-but-recovered-fast: IQ03: lost speed at the jumps but recovered fast (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.