IQ05: gains ground with a poor jump index

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ05: gains ground with a poor jump index KILLED amber

   because Last run: top quarter of the field for ground gained jumping, bottom quarter on Jump Index. Effective but untidy; anyone going by the headline rating marks it down.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.25

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 1.04 on 455 bets, by period 1.11 · 0.93. info

   Betfair SP return +3.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.93 to 1.11. Zone: all. On IQ05: gains ground with a poor jump index

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2661.11

   Later half1890.93

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase today: A/E 0.97 on 134 bets, by period 1.19 · 0.66. info

   Betfair SP return +9.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.66 to 1.19. Zone: all. On IQ05: gains ground with a poor jump index

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half721.19

   Later half620.66

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   last run in today's code: A/E 1.07 on 417 bets, by period 1.12 · 0.98. info

   Betfair SP return +7.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.98 to 1.12. Zone: all. On IQ05: gains ground with a poor jump index

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2501.12

   Later half1670.98

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 0.87 on 324 bets, by period 0.88 · 0.85. info

   Betfair SP return -17.8%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ05: gains ground with a poor jump index

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1840.88

   Later half1400.85

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.03 on 398 bets, by period 1.11 · 0.89. info

   Betfair SP return +1.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.89 to 1.11. Zone: all. On IQ05: gains ground with a poor jump index

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half2341.11

   Later half1640.89

7. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ05: gains ground with a poor jump index Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [last run in today's code] AMBER A/E 1.069 on 417 bets