IQ05: gains ground with a poor jump index

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: top quarter of the field for ground gained jumping, bottom quarter on Jump Index. Effective but untidy; anyone going by the headline rating marks it down.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.25

Reads: race_type, l_lgj_pct, l_jump_index_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.25

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.25) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.25) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.25) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.75 AND l_jump_index_pct <= 0.25) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

398

A/E

1.03

winners vs the prices

SP return

-13.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

+1.3%

398 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 20.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ05-gains-ground-with-a-poor-jump-index Discovery → KILLED import: best [last run in today's code] AMBER A/E 1.069 on 417 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ05-gains-ground-with-a-poor-jump-index (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ05-gains-ground-with-a-poor-jump-index (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ05-gains-ground-with-a-poor-jump-index (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ05-gains-ground-with-a-poor-jump-index (chase today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ05-gains-ground-with-a-poor-jump-index (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea IQ05-gains-ground-with-a-poor-jump-index: IQ05: gains ground with a poor jump index (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.