IQ06: good jump index but loses ground

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ06: good jump index but loses ground KILLED red

   because NEGATIVE: last run top quarter on Jump Index, bottom quarter for ground gained jumping. Tidy, and slow through the air.

   race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_jump_index_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.82 on 383 bets, by period 1.01 · 0.66. info

   Betfair SP return -19.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.66 to 1.01. Zone: all. On IQ06: good jump index but loses ground

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1861.01

   Later half1970.66

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   chase today: A/E 0.81 on 125 bets, by period 1.08 · 0.54. info

   Betfair SP return -48.0%. Unstable: periods range 0.54 to 1.08. Zone: all. On IQ06: good jump index but loses ground

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half641.08

   Later half610.54

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   last run in today's code: A/E 0.83 on 345 bets, by period 1.01 · 0.66. info

   Betfair SP return -16.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.66 to 1.01. Zone: all. On IQ06: good jump index but loses ground

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1701.01

   Later half1750.66

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   handicap: A/E 0.99 on 276 bets, by period 1.35 · 0.73. info

   Betfair SP return +10.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.73 to 1.35. Zone: all. On IQ06: good jump index but loses ground

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half1281.35

   Later half1480.73

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.80 on 160 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.61. info

   Betfair SP return -12.8%. Unstable: periods range 0.61 to 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ06: good jump index but loses ground

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half751.00

   Later half850.61

7. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ06: good jump index but loses ground Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [handicap] RED A/E 0.995 on 276 bets