IQ06: good jump index but loses ground

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: last run top quarter on Jump Index, bottom quarter for ground gained jumping. Tidy, and slow through the air.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_jump_index_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

Reads: race_type, l_jump_index_pct, l_lgj_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_jump_index_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_jump_index_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_jump_index_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_jump_index_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_jump_index_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct <= 0.25) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info 14/1 or shorter · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

160

A/E

0.80

winners vs the prices

SP return

-29.1%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-12.8%

159 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 10.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ06-good-jump-index-but-loses-ground Discovery → KILLED import: best [handicap] RED A/E 0.995 on 276 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ06-good-jump-index-but-loses-ground (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ06-good-jump-index-but-loses-ground (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ06-good-jump-index-but-loses-ground (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ06-good-jump-index-but-loses-ground (chase today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ06-good-jump-index-but-loses-ground (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. New idea IQ06-good-jump-index-but-loses-ground: IQ06: good jump index but loses ground (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.