Threads · pace · IQ10-went-fast-early-jumped-well-and-faded
IQ10: went fast early jumped well and faded
- Hypotheses
- 1 (1 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Promising
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 16 Oct, 10:10
Where it stands: IQ10-went-fast-early-jumped-well-and-faded (IQ10: went fast early jumped well and faded) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.06 on 574 bets (periods 1.08 / 1.05); now PROMISING.
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ10: went fast early jumped well and faded PROMISING green
because Last run: fastest quarter over the first third, better half for ground gained jumping, slowest quarter over the final third. It was the pace or the trip that beat it, not the jumping.
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5 AND l_late_pct <= 0.25made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 1.06 on 574 bets, by period 1.08 · 1.05. info
Betfair SP return +2.2%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.03). Zone: all. On IQ10: went fast early jumped well and faded
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half2531.08Later half3211.05Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
chase today: A/E 1.07 on 254 bets, by period 1.14 · 1.01. info
Betfair SP return +9.4%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.13). Zone: all. On IQ10: went fast early jumped well and faded
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half1201.14Later half1341.01Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
last run in today's code: A/E 1.03 on 508 bets, by period 1.05 · 1.01. info
Betfair SP return +3.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.04). Zone: all. On IQ10: went fast early jumped well and faded
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half2331.05Later half2751.01Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 1.03 on 454 bets, by period 1.12 · 0.96. info
Betfair SP return +1.7%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.12. Zone: all. On IQ10: went fast early jumped well and faded
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half1961.12Later half2580.96Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 1.02 on 360 bets, by period 1.08 · 0.97. info
Betfair SP return +6.1%. Unstable: periods range 0.97 to 1.08. Zone: all. On IQ10: went fast early jumped well and faded
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half1611.08Later half1990.97Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
down in trip by two furlongs or more: A/E 1.14 on 142 bets, by period 1.47 · 0.87. info
Betfair SP return -1.3%. Unstable: periods range 0.87 to 1.47. Zone: all. On IQ10: went fast early jumped well and faded
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half691.47Later half730.87Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10
IQ10: went fast early jumped well and faded Discovery → PROMISINGimport: best [chase today] GREEN A/E 1.073 on 254 bets
Observed16 Oct, 10:10
IQ10-went-fast-early-jumped-well-and-faded (IQ10: went fast early jumped well and faded) was GREEN in the earlier research: A/E 1.06 on 574 bets (periods 1.08 / 1.05); now PROMISING.
result0.30waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ10-went-fast-early-jumped-well-and-faded
Where it started
Last run: fastest quarter over the first third, better half for ground gained jumping, slowest quarter over the final third. It was the pace or the trip that beat it, not the jumping.