IQ10: went fast early jumped well and faded

Mechanism and rationale

Last run: fastest quarter over the first third, better half for ground gained jumping, slowest quarter over the final third. It was the pace or the trip that beat it, not the jumping.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5 AND l_late_pct <= 0.25

Reads: race_type, l_early_pct, l_lgj_pct, l_late_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5 AND l_late_pct <= 0.25

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5 AND l_late_pct <= 0.25) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5 AND l_late_pct <= 0.25) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5 AND l_late_pct <= 0.25) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5 AND l_late_pct <= 0.25) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "down in trip by two furlongs or more",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct >= 0.75 AND l_lgj_pct >= 0.5 AND l_late_pct <= 0.25) AND (distance_yards <= last_distance_yards - 440)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info down in trip by two furlongs or more · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

142

A/E

1.14

winners vs the prices

SP return

-14.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-1.3%

142 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 9.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ10-went-fast-early-jumped-well-and-faded Discovery → PROMISING import: best [chase today] GREEN A/E 1.073 on 254 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ10-went-fast-early-jumped-well-and-faded (down in trip by two furlongs or more): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ10-went-fast-early-jumped-well-and-faded (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ10-went-fast-early-jumped-well-and-faded (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ10-went-fast-early-jumped-well-and-faded (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ10-went-fast-early-jumped-well-and-faded (chase today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. import result for IQ10-went-fast-early-jumped-well-and-faded (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

8. New idea IQ10-went-fast-early-jumped-well-and-faded: IQ10: went fast early jumped well and faded (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Promising.