Threads · pace · IQ11-slow-early-and-fast-late
IQ11: slow early and fast late
- Hypotheses
- 1 (0 alive)
- Depth
- 0
- Best rung
- Discovery
- Open questions
- 0
- Last activity
- 15 Oct, 23:10
Where it stands: best [chase today] AMBER A/E 1.06 on 653 bets
The notebook
In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.
Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10
IQ11: slow early and fast late KILLED amber
because NEGATIVE: last run slowest quarter over the first third and fastest quarter over the last. A closer flattered by being ridden to pick up the pieces; the remarks already show the market overpays for it.
race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND l_late_pct >= 0.75made by import
Tested15 Oct, 23:10
broad: A/E 0.95 on 2,022 bets, by period 0.91 · 1.00. info
Betfair SP return -14.5%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ11: slow early and fast late
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half9950.91Later half1,0271.00Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
chase today: A/E 1.06 on 653 bets, by period 1.02 · 1.10. info
Betfair SP return +1.7%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.08). Zone: all. On IQ11: slow early and fast late
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half3301.02Later half3231.10Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
last run in today's code: A/E 0.94 on 1,879 bets, by period 0.89 · 0.99. info
Betfair SP return -15.9%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ11: slow early and fast late
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half9460.89Later half9330.99Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
handicap: A/E 0.95 on 1,615 bets, by period 0.91 · 0.99. info
Betfair SP return -12.2%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ11: slow early and fast late
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half7610.91Later half8540.99Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
14/1 or shorter: A/E 0.96 on 1,761 bets, by period 0.92 · 1.00. info
Betfair SP return -7.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.92 to 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ11: slow early and fast late
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half8590.92Later half9021.00Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Tested15 Oct, 23:10
beaten five lengths or less: A/E 1.00 on 745 bets, by period 0.91 · 1.08. info
Betfair SP return -8.4%. Unstable: periods range 0.91 to 1.08. Zone: all. On IQ11: slow early and fast late
By period
betsA/E0.71.01.3Earlier half3730.91Later half3721.08Bars grow from 1.00, the market. Faded bars have fewer than 40 bets. Killed15 Oct, 23:10
IQ11: slow early and fast late Discovery → KILLEDimport: best [chase today] AMBER A/E 1.06 on 653 bets
Where it started
NEGATIVE: last run slowest quarter over the first third and fastest quarter over the last. A closer flattered by being ridden to pick up the pieces; the remarks already show the market overpays for it.