IQ11: slow early and fast late

Mechanism and rationale

NEGATIVE: last run slowest quarter over the first third and fastest quarter over the last. A closer flattered by being ridden to pick up the pieces; the remarks already show the market overpays for it.

The rule

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND l_late_pct >= 0.75

Reads: race_type, l_early_pct, l_late_pct

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

not designed yet

Frozen

not frozen

The definition can still change.

Broad

race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND l_late_pct >= 0.75

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

[
  {
    "name": "chase today",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND l_late_pct >= 0.75) AND (race_type = 'Chase')"
  },
  {
    "name": "last run in today's code",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND l_late_pct >= 0.75) AND (l_same_code = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "handicap",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND l_late_pct >= 0.75) AND (is_handicap = 1)"
  },
  {
    "name": "14/1 or shorter",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND l_late_pct >= 0.75) AND (sp_decimal <= 15)"
  },
  {
    "name": "beaten five lengths or less",
    "rule": "(race_type IN ('Chase', 'Hurdle') AND l_early_pct <= 0.25 AND l_late_pct >= 0.75) AND (last_position > 1 AND last_beaten_lengths <= 5)"
  }
]

Result (from the archive)

info beaten five lengths or less · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

745

A/E

1.00

winners vs the prices

SP return

-23.5%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-8.4%

743 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 17.9%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Not queried. Only a frozen idea can spend its one query against the 2020-25 holdout.

Forward record

No forward record. Shadow tracking starts after the vault and counts only races run after the freeze.

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. IQ11-slow-early-and-fast-late Discovery → KILLED import: best [chase today] AMBER A/E 1.06 on 653 bets

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

2. import result for IQ11-slow-early-and-fast-late (beaten five lengths or less): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

3. import result for IQ11-slow-early-and-fast-late (14/1 or shorter): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

4. import result for IQ11-slow-early-and-fast-late (handicap): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

5. import result for IQ11-slow-early-and-fast-late (last run in today's code): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

6. import result for IQ11-slow-early-and-fast-late (chase today): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

7. import result for IQ11-slow-early-and-fast-late (broad): info

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

8. New idea IQ11-slow-early-and-fast-late: IQ11: slow early and fast late (import)

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

Every change is an event with an actor: an agent and its version, an engine, a human, or the importer. Current stage: Killed.