IQ131: generic trainer development

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ131: generic trainer development SHADOW red

   because B: any yard in the top third for development, hurdle start 2-4, technique below the median last time, predicted uplift in the top third.

   dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_hyp_b = 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.95 on 633 bets, by period 1.00 · 0.83. info

   Betfair SP return -47.6%. Unstable: periods range 0.83 to 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ131: generic trainer development

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half4571.00

   Later half1760.83

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 1.02 on 1,185 bets, by period 1.02. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ131: generic trainer development

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1,1851.02

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 1.01 on 748 bets, by period 1.01. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ131: generic trainer development

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago7481.01

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 1.05 on 437 bets, by period 1.05. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ131: generic trainer development

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago4371.05

   Last year0–

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 1.01 on 949 bets, by period 1.01. info

   Betfair SP return -31.5%. Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ131: generic trainer development

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year9491.01

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ131: generic trainer development Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

8. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ131: generic trainer development Vault → SHADOWimport: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.025 on 1185 (GB 1.013, IRE 1.055), p 0.4076 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

9. Tested15 Oct, 23:21

   forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info

   Zone: forward. On IQ131: generic trainer development

10. Observed16 Oct, 10:10

    IQ131-generic-trainer-development (IQ131: generic trainer development) pointed the predicted way (positive) on the sealed holdout but too weakly to prove it: A/E 1.025 on 1185 bets (p 0.408, false-discovery threshold 0.0034); tracked forward in SHADOW.

    result0.35waiting for a reasoning passfrom IQ131-generic-trainer-development

11. Tested16 Oct, 23:21

    forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2} on 0 bets. info

    Zone: forward. On IQ131: generic trainer development