IQ131: generic trainer development

Mechanism and rationale

B: any yard in the top third for development, hurdle start 2-4, technique below the median last time, predicted uplift in the top third.

The rule

dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_hyp_b = 1

Reads: dv_now, dv_hyp_b

Pre-registration

Spec hash (sha256 of the canonical pre-spec)

623ffd97d13a3d89f972ddb0447a7a1e5f14f5457dc5e7a120f2c43d9777b99e

Frozen

14 Oct, 01:00

Nothing in the definition can change after this.

Broad

dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_hyp_b = 1

Holdout

{
  "direction": "positive",
  "frozen_in": "research/experiments/raceiq/iq_batch_10",
  "frozen_on": "2026-10-14",
  "id": "IQ131-generic-trainer-development",
  "rule": "dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_hyp_b = 1"
}

Kind

remarks

Origin

research/experiments/raceiq/results.jsonl

Refinements

none

Result (from the archive)

info discovery year (reference) · 15 Oct, 23:10

Bets

949

A/E

1.01

winners vs the prices

SP return

-49.2%

level stakes

Betfair SP return

-31.5%

949 bets with a BSP

Strike rate 8.6%.

Falsification

No attacks yet. Only promising ideas are attacked.

Sealed holdout (vault)

Bets

1,185

14 Oct, 13:00

A/E

1.02

p = 0.41

BH threshold then

0.0034

over every vault test so far

Outcome

Failed

from the archive

Forward record

• forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info

  0 bets · · 15 Oct, 23:21

  Breakdown

  betsA/E0.71.01.3

  forward0–

• forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}info

  0 bets · · 16 Oct, 23:21

  Breakdown

  betsA/E0.71.01.3

  forward0–

Lineage

No parent and no descendants yet. When an agent mutates, generalises or splits this idea, the new hypotheses appear here.

Agent runs

No agent has worked on this yet.

Timeline

1. Job 2096 finished

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:compute-1

2. forward result for IQ131-generic-trainer-development (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:evaluator

3. compute-1 took job 2096 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   16 Oct, 23:21 · compute-1

4. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   16 Oct, 23:21 · engine:scheduler

5. Job 4 finished

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:compute-1

6. forward result for IQ131-generic-trainer-development (forward vs bar {'min_bets': 100, 'min_ae': 1.0, 'max_p': 0.2}): info

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:evaluator

7. compute-1 took job 4 (forward_check, attempt 1)

   15 Oct, 23:21 · compute-1

8. Queued forward_check on the compute lane: daily forward check of a shadow system

   15 Oct, 23:21 · engine:scheduler

9. IQ131-generic-trainer-development Vault → SHADOW import: holdout SUPPORTIVE: A/E 1.025 on 1185 (GB 1.013, IRE 1.055), p 0.4076 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests

   15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

10. IQ131-generic-trainer-development Frozen → FROZENvault import: vault

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

11. IQ131-generic-trainer-development Falsification → FROZEN import: frozen

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

12. import result for IQ131-generic-trainer-development (discovery year (reference)): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

13. import result for IQ131-generic-trainer-development (Ireland): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

14. import result for IQ131-generic-trainer-development (Britain): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

15. import result for IQ131-generic-trainer-development (HOLDOUT 2023-25, all): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

16. import result for IQ131-generic-trainer-development (broad): info

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer

17. New idea IQ131-generic-trainer-development: IQ131: generic trainer development (import)

    15 Oct, 23:10 · importer