IQ134: control poor technique average yard

The notebook

In order: what the lab saw, what it asked, what it proposed and why, what the tests said, and what an investigator concluded. Numbers are aggregates on the discovery data unless a step says otherwise.

1. Hypothesised15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ134: control poor technique average yard KILLED red

   because CONTROL 3: technique below the median last time, yard score in the middle third.

   dv_now IS NOT NULL AND dv_c_poor_average_yard = 1

   made by import

2. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   broad: A/E 0.99 on 1,143 bets, by period 0.96 · 1.14. info

   Betfair SP return +35.2%. Unstable: periods range 0.96 to 1.14. Zone: all. On IQ134: control poor technique average yard

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   Earlier half8760.96

   Later half2671.14

3. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   HOLDOUT 2023-25, all: A/E 0.98 on 1,956 bets, by period 0.98. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ134: control poor technique average yard

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1,9560.98

   Last year0–

4. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Britain: A/E 1.07 on 1,268 bets, by period 1.07. info

   Every period above 1.00 (spread 0.00). Zone: all. On IQ134: control poor technique average yard

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago1,2681.07

   Last year0–

5. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   Ireland: A/E 0.69 on 688 bets, by period 0.69. info

   Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ134: control poor technique average yard

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago6880.69

   Last year0–

6. Tested15 Oct, 23:10

   discovery year (reference): A/E 0.92 on 699 bets, by period 0.92. info

   Betfair SP return +97.4%. Every period below 1.00. Zone: all. On IQ134: control poor technique average yard

   By period

   betsA/E0.71.01.3

   2020-220–

   2023 to a year ago0–

   Last year6990.92

7. Promoted15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ134: control poor technique average yard Falsification → FROZENimport: frozen

8. Killed15 Oct, 23:10

   IQ134: control poor technique average yard Vault → KILLEDfailed the vaultimport: holdout CONTRADICTED (control): A/E 0.985 on 1956 (GB 1.072, IRE 0.687), p 0.5763 against BH 0.003448 over 29 tests